Poker blog

During a recent morning poker session, I found myself in a spot that I often find uncomfortable: playing 6-max No Limit Hold'em from early position with a medium-high pocket pair, specifically 99 to JJ. I open-raise, and the player to my left calls, followed by the player in the next position who decides to squeeze.

My immediate instinct is to call. After all, my hand feels strong enough to continue, but not strong enough to raise. However, I quickly realize that I'm in a tricky situation. I'm out of position, with no initiative in the hand, and there's still a player left to act behind me (even though they're capped).

But the real dilemma comes on the flop. How do we proceed from here?

In these situations, I typically check my entire range, allowing the players behind me to act first. This gives me time to reassess. More often than not, this feels like the natural progression of the hand. However, I find this approach problematic when I've flopped a vulnerable overpair — a situation that occurs roughly 25% of the time.

At that point, I'm in a tricky spot: I like my hand, but I'm aware that it's susceptible to being outdrawn on later streets. Overcards, potential straightening-, or flushing- cards could all diminish the strength of my hand.

So, I start to wonder if fast-playing with a check-raise is the best course of action.

But wait — let's not rush. We're up against an uncapped villain who 3-bet preflop, and there's a real possibility that they hold a higher pocket pair. As tempting as it might be to build the pot now, we have to consider whether that's the right move.

The alternative — checking — is also unappealing. If I check, the aggressor can continuation-bet with their premium hands and strong draws, while also checking back weaker hands like mid-to-bottom pairs or gutshots, hoping to improve on later streets.

This leaves me in a tough spot, where even if a blank comes on the turn, I'm not sure whether I'm in a good or bad position.

So, what's the solution? Maybe we can sidestep this dilemma by adopting a donk-bet strategy on the flop, but only under specific conditions:

1. • We're in a 3-bet pot.
2. • We're out of position.
3. • We have a vulnerable overpair.

If we choose to donk bet small, say around 33% of the pot, our opponents are likely to call with weaker one-pair hands while folding most of their unpaired overcards. This approach allows us to win more when we're ahead and reduces the risk of getting outdrawn when potential scare cards hit the turn or river.

By donk-betting, we take the initiative in the hand. We can then continue to value bet small, as long as we believe our opponents will call with weaker hands.

Of course, if they decide to raise or make a sizable bet, we can confidently fold, knowing that our pocket pair is no longer strong enough to continue.

Donk-betting has never been a part of my typical poker strategy, but in this specific situation, I find it appealing. I might give it a try and incorporate it into my play when the conditions are right.